A spending cut for want of people.
Transpower owns and runs New Zealand's national grid. Its spending is set by the Commerce Commission in five year regulatory periods, and the current one, RCP4, runs from 1 April 2025. In its final decision paper of August 2024 the Commission accepted NZ$2,251.5 million of capital expenditure as prudent and efficient, about 92 per cent of what Transpower proposed, in constant 2022/23 dollars.
The notable part was the reason for part of the gap. The Commission said it had concerns about Transpower's ability to recruit the staff needed to deliver the program, and applied a deliverability adjustment of NZ$171.8 million: NZ$110.1 million off capital expenditure and NZ$61.7 million off operating expenditure. The adjustment was based on Transpower's own recruitment progress. Further funds can be released during the period if Transpower shows it has hired the people, through a new deliverability reopener.
Put simply, the regulator has written workforce into the price path. The money is there for the work. Access to all of it depends on headcount.
The work that needs the people.
Much of the RCP4 program replaces grid assets built in the middle of the last century that are now reaching the end of their lives. On top of that base program sit large individual projects approved separately.
- Cook Strait HVDC renewal. In June 2026 the Commission approved NZ$1.1 billion for the first stage: four new undersea cables, new cable termination stations on each side of the strait, spare cable storage and a filter bank upgrade at Benmore. Prysmian is the cable supplier. The existing cables date from 1991 and the new ones are due to be installed and commissioned in the early 2030s.
- Substations and lines. Transpower's FY26 result in August 2026 listed approvals including NZ$47 million to rebuild Redclyffe substation and NZ$50.5 million to replace the Ōtāhuhu to Whakamaru line.
- New generation. The same result reported 22 generation connection projects in delivery, representing about 3,000 MW by the end of 2028 if customers commit.
Not only Transpower's own staff.
Transpower itself told the Commission that delivering RCP4 needs significant growth in its own workforce, and also growth in local engineering consultancies, service providers, and specialist contractors from offshore. That is the honest shape of the market. The grid owner sets the program, but most of the engineering hours are worked by consultancies and contractors who are hiring from the same small pool.
The roles under most pressure are the ones every transmission program needs: HV substation and protection design engineers, transmission line designers, project and construction managers with network experience, test and commissioning engineers, and the authorised people who carry out switching and access. HVDC adds a smaller and even scarcer layer of converter, cable and controls specialists.
Why this is an Australian story too.
Australia is running its own transmission build at the same time, and the disciplines are the same. Engineers trained at Transpower or a New Zealand lines company are very employable in Australian networks and renewable projects, and Australians with network experience are exactly who New Zealand's consultancies are trying to attract. The Tasman is a short flight, the standards are close relatives, and the main friction is network specific authorisation, which is a planning task rather than a wall.
The Commission's decision makes the competition visible. When a regulator holds back money until a grid owner proves it has hired, every engineering firm that wants that work is under the same pressure to show a team.
What we would tell an employer.
If you deliver grid work in New Zealand, assume the people constraint is real and recognised by the regulator. Hire ahead of awarded work where you can, because a team you can name is a competitive advantage when the client is itself being measured on capacity.
If you hire HV people in Australia, treat New Zealand as part of your market rather than a source to raid. Strong candidates move in both directions, and a clear offer on authorisation, relocation and project tenure wins more of them than salary alone.
If you are an engineer, the signal is plain. The work in New Zealand is funded for years, and the regulator has said out loud that people are the limiting factor.
Money for the grid is approved. The people to spend it are the part still being found.