The shape of the slowdown.
Australia has not run out of renewable energy projects. What has slowed is the conversion rate from early stage pipeline to financial close. Across the projects LUVI tracks, FID slippage averaged 8 months in 2024 and 11 months in 2025. Our 2026 read so far suggests 13 to 15 months is the new normal.
The three upstream causes are well documented. Grid connection queues have pushed connection offers out past project ready dates. Capital cost inflation has killed the economics of projects approved under 2022 PPA assumptions. And planning and environmental approvals are running longer, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria.
What it means for hiring rhythm.
For the last three years, developers ran hiring cycles on the assumption that project teams needed to be largely complete 12 to 18 months out from construction start. In a slipping market that model leaves expensive teams sitting underutilised.
Smarter operators are now hiring in waves. A lean development and approvals core is kept permanent. Project delivery, commissioning and commercial leads are brought on as a bundle only once FID is signed and long lead equipment is ordered. Site based teams mobilise on a three to four month notice.
This is a return to how infrastructure hiring used to work and it plays well with the specialist contract market. Expect contractor day rates to hold even as permanent salaries flatten.
Where we are still seeing aggressive hiring.
- Grid connection and transmission. AEMO and Transgrid are competing head to head with developer side teams for the same HV engineering pool. Hiring here is not slowing.
- BESS. Projects at or beyond FID are mobilising fast. Liddell, Waratah, Eraring and Smithfield are pushing commissioning demand into Q3 and Q4.
- Critical facilities and data centres. A parallel universe. No FID slippage, no approvals drag. Hyperscale builds in Sydney and Melbourne are the most consistent source of hiring in the country.
How to plan for 2026.
If your pipeline has moved right, two things to do this quarter:
- Lock in talent mapping early. Even if you are not hiring now, build your shortlist while the market is quiet. The moment your FID is confirmed, every peer will be hiring at once.
- Use the slowdown to upgrade the team. The best developers we work with are using this window to replace mid tier permanent staff with higher calibre hires that were not available at market peak.