The prediction, and what actually happened.
In early July we wrote that the new financial year hiring wave was already visible in the first week of the quarter, and that the strongest candidates, the ones with two completed sites or genuine grid connection depth, would be off the market inside four to six weeks. That is roughly what occurred.
What we did not fully anticipate was how sharply the market would split. Employers who had their shortlist mapped before budget landed have largely filled. Employers who started the conversation in late July are now on their second or third search round, and several have adjusted the brief rather than the budget. The gap between the two groups is not money. It is three weeks of preparation.
The uncomfortable statistic from our own desk: across the searches we ran in July, the median time from brief to accepted offer was under four weeks for clients with a pre booked interview panel, and over nine weeks for clients who booked interviews reactively. Same roles. Same market. Same packages.
What is still genuinely available in August.
- Candidates who were counter offered in July and are now unhappy. The highest value pool in the market right now. A counter offer bought their employer six weeks, not a year, and most of these people are still looking. They are warm, they are sold on moving, and they are usually faster to close the second time.
- Contract and day rate specialists between assignments. Project cycles do not align to financial years. There is a steady flow of commissioning, HSE, project controls and supervision talent coming off completed scopes through August and September.
- Interstate and overseas movers. Slower to process and therefore less contested. Anyone willing to run a relocation or sponsorship conversation in August is choosing from a pool their competitors have already written off.
- Strong people in sectors having a hard year. The hydrogen withdrawals have put genuinely capable process, electrical, approvals and commercial people into the market with realistic expectations.
What has gone, and is not coming back this quarter.
Be realistic about this rather than hopeful. The following are effectively unavailable until the next cycle, and pretending otherwise burns a quarter.
- BESS commissioning managers with two or more completed grid scale sites
- Senior grid connection engineers on the developer side
- Critical facilities and critical power engineers in Sydney and Melbourne
- Rail signalling and systems engineers with Australian project exposure
- Protection engineers inside or recently out of a network business
For those five, the options are to pay a clear premium, to hire on contract, to hire from overseas, or to restructure the role so a strong adjacent candidate can succeed in it. We would usually recommend the fourth option first and almost nobody takes it.
What to change this week.
- Book the interview panel before the shortlist arrives. This is the single highest return process change available and it costs nothing. Hold two slots per week for four weeks with your decision makers in the room.
- Cut a stage. Most four stage processes in this market are three stage processes with an unnecessary round of internal consensus building. Decide who actually holds the decision and let them hold it.
- Re approach your July near misses. The candidate who accepted a counter offer in week two of July is worth a phone call in week two of August. In our experience roughly one in three is ready to talk again.